DUBAI, UAE – Gold has the potential to hit $4,000 per ounce at the end of 2025, according to a comprehensive report from Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, in partnership with FXStreet.
Gold has recently surged to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce. The rally marks a 26-percent increase year-to-date and a 41-percent gain over the past 12 months — sharply outperforming equities, with the S&P 500 down 11 percent in the same period. This underscores gold's renewed strength as a reliable safe-haven asset.
“Gold's outperformance reflects a broader macroeconomic trend: investors fleeing volatility in traditional markets. A weakening US dollar, persistent inflation, and negative equity returns have made gold increasingly attractive. As fiat currencies lose purchasing power, gold's status as a hedge against currency devaluation has been reaffirmed across global markets,” Bybit said in a statement.
Trade policies under US President Donald Trump have reignited fears of a global tariff war. This uncertainty is driving capital towards gold as a politically neutral store of value. Tariffs on key commodities — and the possibility of levies on gold itself — are pushing exporters and importers to divest from vulnerable currencies such as the CAD, JPY, EUR, CNY, and MXN in favor of gold reserves.
Traditional safe-haven instruments like US Treasuries are seeing reduced demand from exporting nations affected by US tariffs. As Treasury yields lose their appeal, gold is increasingly seen as the only truly stable alternative for risk-averse capital.
Technical momentum
From a technical perspective, bullish signals remain in place. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains positive, with the short-term (12-day) moving average staying above the longer-term (26-day) average — a classic sign of continued upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, indicating healthy momentum without entering overbought territory.
Given the supportive macroeconomic backdrop, persistent geopolitical risks, and favorable technical setup, analysts are forecasting the rally will continue short-term. Gold appears poised to test its next resistance level at $3,500, with a potential to climb to $4,000 per ounce by year end if current momentum holds.
For its part, silver presents an overlooked but compelling opportunity for diversification. Historically moving in tandem with gold, silver remains significantly undervalued compared to its 2011 all-time high of US$50 per ounce. With industrial demand also contributing to its strength, silver could benefit from both defensive capital flows and cyclical economic recovery, offering investors an additional layer of resilience.
Conclusion
Gold's rise to historic highs is the result of intersecting forces: economic headwinds, inflationary pressure, political uncertainty, and a global search for reliable stores of value. With traditional safe-havens underperforming and demand from markets like China rising, gold's outlook remains strong. As momentum builds, both gold and silver are reasserting themselves as essential components of a diversified portfolio in 2025.
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