Upticks in the prices of rice and fish, along with other key food items, are seen as upside risks to January 2026 inflation, which the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects to settle within the range of 1.4 to 2.2 percent.

In an advisory released Friday night, the central bank said several domestic factors could exert upward pressure on prices during the month.

“Increased domestic fuel costs, the annual adjustment in excise taxes for alcohol and tobacco, higher water and toll rates, as well as the peso depreciation pose additional risks to the current month's rate of price increases,” the BSP said.

The BSP noted, however, that some of these inflationary pressures may be tempered by easing costs in other areas.

“These pressures could be partly offset by lower electricity charges in Meralco-serviced areas and stabilizing vegetable prices. The BSP will continue to monitor domestic and international developments affecting the outlook for inflation and growth in line with its data-dependent approach to monetary policy,” it added.

Monetary officials reiterated their outlook that inflation could accelerate this year but remain within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target band, supported by continued policy measures and supply-side interventions.

In 2025, inflation averaged 1.7 percent, below the target range, a performance partly attributed to government efforts to ensure adequate food supply and maintain stable prices of basic commodities.