The global trade outlook remains fragile, but business confidence is holding firm, according to DP World’s Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report 2026.
The report found that 94 percent of respondents expect global trade growth in 2026 to match or exceed the pace of 2025, despite rising trade frictions and market volatility.
The findings were based on a survey of 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos.
Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, group chairman and chief executive officer of DP World, said global trade conditions are becoming more complex, underscoring the need for strategic investment and preparedness.
“Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably,” bin Sulayem said.
The survey showed that 54 percent of respondents expect trade growth in 2026 to be faster than in 2025, while 40 percent expect growth to remain at the same level. This outlook persists even as 53 percent anticipate high or very high policy uncertainty and 90 percent expect trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged.
Only 25 percent of respondents expect a negative impact on their business, while 49 percent foresee no impact and 26 percent expect a positive effect.
The optimistic sentiment among industry leaders contrasts with some macroeconomic projections. The International Monetary Fund has forecast that global trade growth by volume could slow to 2.3 percent in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2025.
When asked where trade growth potential is strongest in 2026, executives most frequently cited Europe at 22 percent and China at 17 percent, followed by Asia Pacific at 14 percent and North America at 13 percent.
The GTO Annual Outlook was developed in partnership with Geneva-based insights agency Horizon Group. Margareta Drzeniek, managing partner at Horizon Group, said executives are responding to uncertainty by building resilience into their strategies.
“What we’re seeing is confidence with contingency plans. Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance,” Drzeniek said.
